The New US Administration’s Africa Policies: What to Expect and What to Do
As the United States transitions to a new administration, the spotlight turns to its policy approach toward Africa. The continent’s strategic importance is undeniable – it is the second-fastest growing economic region globally, yet still not well integrated into world trade. Against the backdrop of democratic backsliding in some countries and an ongoing scramble for influence between global powers, the incoming administration’s Africa policies will have far-reaching implications.
Shifting Priorities under the New Administration
The Biden-Harris administration sought to recalibrate US engagement with Africa, upgrading USAID as a tool for promoting global order and emphasizing strategic competition with China and Russia. The new administration, however, is likely to chart a different course.
Under a second Trump presidency, the “America First” principle is poised to take center stage, potentially eschewing multilateral approaches in favor of unilateral action and transactional partnerships. The Heritage Foundation’s “Project 2025” playbook, which is closely tied to Trump, calls for a more selective engagement with African governments – cooperating only with those that follow the US lead in global politics. This could result in restructuring USAID and cutting funding to UN agencies and NGOs, overburdening national bodies and denigrating international partners who value reliable cooperation on global governance issues.
The administration’s domestic priorities, such as reviving the fossil fuel industry and promoting discriminatory policies, are also likely to be projected outward. This could exacerbate the already precarious climate impacts in Africa and create rifts with partners who prioritize human rights and international law.
Potential Policy Shifts and Implications
One of the most significant shifts could be the administration’s approach to the African Union (AU). The Trump administration previously recognized Somaliland’s statehood, a move that would have profound geopolitical consequences by breaking with decades of reticence and undermining the AU’s role as the first actor to decide on such matters. This could open the door for further redrawing of borders in Africa, with far-reaching implications for regional stability.
Moreover, the administration’s potential withdrawal from multilateral commitments and collaborations with NGOs would not only burden national bodies but also erode the credibility of the US as a reliable partner. This could incentivize African governments to seek stronger partnerships with Russia or China, further complicating the strategic competition landscape.
Opportunities for Strengthening Partnerships
In contrast, a Harris-Walz administration would likely build on the strategic alignment initiated during the Biden-Harris years, recognizing African agency and leadership. This could include co-financing the AU’s Agenda 2063, lobbying for a seat for the AU in the G20, and advocating for more African representation in international organizations.
Additionally, the Democratic Party’s approach seems to have acknowledged that African governments exercise their agency in international affairs more self-confidently than ever. A Harris-Walz administration could focus on holding course, building trust, championing multilateralism, and involving the private sector in development programs – areas where there is potential for more coherent cooperation between Brussels and Washington.
Geopolitical Considerations in Africa
The Evolving Landscape of Global Influence
The pivot to Asia will define the tenure of the next US administration, but strategic competition at the global level between the US, China, and Russia will not leave Africa’s policy untouched. China’s expanding presence, marked by heavy investments in regional ports and the opening of its first African military base, is seen as eroding US influence, particularly in the strategically vital Horn of Africa region.
Regional Dynamics and Power Dynamics
The Trump administration’s potential recognition of Somaliland’s statehood could have far-reaching consequences, potentially triggering a domino effect of border redrawing across the continent. This would create significant turmoil, as demonstrated by the examples of Western Sahara, Biafra, and Azawad.
Navigating Multilateral Engagements
Multilateral engagement will be a crucial factor in the new administration’s Africa policy. While a Trump-led administration may favor unilateral action and transactional partnerships, a Harris-Walz administration could prioritize strengthening the AU’s role and advocating for increased African representation in global governance institutions.
Economic and Development Cooperation
Trade and Investment Opportunities
The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which provides duty-free trade access to the US market, is up for reauthorization in 2025. A Trump administration may seek to renegotiate the terms or even withdraw from the agreement, while a Harris-Walz administration could build on the progress made during the Biden-Harris years to further strengthen economic ties.
Infrastructure Development and Sustainability
The new administration’s stance on climate change and energy policy will have significant implications for Africa’s development trajectory. A Trump-led government is likely to favor fossil fuel-based growth, potentially exacerbating the continent’s vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. Conversely, a Harris-Walz administration could prioritize climate-friendly energy transitions and adaptation measures, aligning with the EU’s approach.
Collaboration on Sustainable Growth
Public-private partnerships will be crucial in fostering sustainable economic development in Africa. A Trump administration may prioritize the involvement of the private sector over traditional development assistance, while a Harris-Walz administration could seek to balance these interests and champion multilateral cooperation.
Security and Governance Challenges
Counterterrorism and Conflict Resolution
The new administration’s approach to security challenges in Africa, such as the fight against terrorism and conflict resolution, will shape regional stability. A Trump-led government may favor a more unilateral and heavy-handed approach, potentially straining relationships with key regional partners. Conversely, a Harris-Walz administration could emphasize multilateral engagement and support for African-led initiatives.
Strengthening Democratic Institutions
The promotion of democratic values and the strengthening of governance institutions will be a critical test for the incoming administration. A Trump-led government may prioritize short-term stability over long-term democratic consolidation, while a Harris-Walz administration could make this a central pillar of its Africa policy.
Promoting Rule of Law and Human Rights
The new administration’s stance on human rights and the rule of law will significantly impact its relationships with African partners. A Trump-led government may align with conservative, authoritarian-leaning governments, while a Harris-Walz administration could make the protection of civil liberties and marginalized groups a key focus.
As the United States transitions to a new administration, Africa’s strategic importance and the complex web of global influence in the region will require a nuanced and comprehensive policy approach. Whichever path the incoming administration chooses, it will have far-reaching consequences for the continent and its peoples. Navigating this landscape will require a delicate balance of pragmatism, principled engagement, and a commitment to fostering truly equitable partnerships.