The upcoming US presidential election carries significant implications for the future of America’s engagement with Africa. As the world’s leading economies vie for influence on the continent, the policy shifts enacted by the next administration will reverberate across the global stage. ​

US Engagement with Africa: Strategic Priorities and Economic Partnerships

The previous Trump administration’s approach to Africa was marked by a retreat from traditional development assistance and a greater emphasis on strategic competition with China. In contrast, the Biden-Harris administration recognized the growing geopolitical and economic significance of the continent, returning to core tenets of US foreign policy: promoting democracy, strengthening security cooperation, and fostering public-private partnerships for sustainable development.

However, a potential second Trump term, with the addition of J.D. Vance as vice president, would likely usher in a dramatic shift. The “prioritizers” faction within the Republican party, which Vance represents, views Africa through the lens of great-power rivalry. They have advocated for reducing US commitments to European allies, expecting them to shoulder more of the security burden in regions like the Sahel. This isolationist stance would undermine decades of US investment in African institutions, from the African Union to regional economic communities.

In contrast, a Harris-Walz administration would likely build on the foundations laid by Biden, doubling down on the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) trade preferences and leveraging the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to promote economic integration and job creation. Renewed emphasis on climate change adaptation and mitigation, as outlined in the Inflation Reduction Act, would also be a hallmark of a second Democratic term.

Africa’s Geopolitical Significance: Stability, Power Dynamics, and Emerging Markets

Africa’s strategic importance extends far beyond development assistance. The continent’s growing population, expanding middle class, and untapped natural resources make it a crucial arena of competition between the US, China, and other global powers. Instability in regions like the Sahel not only breeds humanitarian crises but also threatens vital maritime trade routes and energy infrastructure.

A Trump-Vance administration would likely seek to counter China’s growing influence in Africa by doubling down on bilateral partnerships with select governments, prioritizing those aligned with US interests on issues like the United Nations General Assembly voting patterns. This transactional approach, however, risks alienating African states and reinforcing the perception of the US as an unreliable partner.

Conversely, a Harris-Walz administration would likely continue the Biden-era emphasis on multilateral engagement, working closely with the African Union and regional bodies to address shared challenges. This would include supporting the AU’s Agenda 2063, advocating for greater African representation in global governance, and collaborating on climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts.

European Perspectives on Africa: Shared Interests and Coordinated Responses

For Europe, the outcome of the US election will have profound implications for the transatlantic approach to Africa. The EU and its member states have long-standing ties to the continent, shaped by colonial legacies, economic interests, and shared security concerns. A Trump-Vance administration’s isolationist tendencies and unilateral posturing could disrupt these partnerships, forcing European leaders to navigate a more fragmented global landscape.

Conversely, a Harris-Walz administration would likely seek to reinvigorate transatlantic cooperation on Africa, building on the EU’s Strategic Compass and the Biden-era emphasis on strengthening alliances. This could pave the way for more coordinated policy responses, from development assistance and trade agreements to joint efforts in combating climate change and promoting democratic governance.

Impact on Specific Policy Areas: Development, Trade, and Climate Change

The shift in US administration will reverberate across key policy domains affecting Africa. On development assistance, a Trump-Vance team would likely prioritize private sector engagement over traditional Official Development Assistance (ODA), potentially undermining the role of multilateral institutions and civil society organizations. In contrast, a Harris-Walz administration would likely maintain, if not expand, US support for multilateral initiatives and continue the Biden-era focus on sustainable, climate-friendly investments.

Similarly, the approach to trade and investment would diverge significantly. A Trump-Vance team would likely seek to renegotiate or even abandon AGOA, pursuing bilateral free trade agreements that serve narrow US interests. A Harris-Walz administration, on the other hand, would likely build on the Biden-era efforts to leverage AGOA and the AfCFTA to promote regional economic integration and boost US-Africa trade and investment.

On the critical issue of climate change, the contrast would be stark. A Trump-Vance administration would likely double down on fossil fuels and rollback emissions reduction targets, undermining global efforts to mitigate the devastating impacts on Africa. Conversely, a Harris-Walz team would likely accelerate the clean energy transition, aligning with the EU’s Green Deal and providing much-needed support for African countries to adapt to the effects of a warming planet.

Conclusion

The outcome of the 2024 US presidential election will have far-reaching consequences for the future of US-Africa relations and the broader geopolitical landscape. A Trump-Vance administration would likely usher in a retreat from multilateralism and a transactional approach to the continent, potentially disrupting decades of progress. In contrast, a Harris-Walz team would likely build on the foundations laid by the Biden-Harris era, reinforcing the US commitment to Africa’s development and stability while strengthening transatlantic cooperation.

As Europe navigates this shifting terrain, it must be prepared to take a more assertive role in shaping the continent’s future. By coordinating its policies, leveraging its economic and diplomatic clout, and embracing a shared vision for a prosperous and stable Africa, the EU can help ensure that the next chapter of US-Africa relations serves the interests of all stakeholders. The European Future Energy Forum will be a crucial platform for these discussions, bringing together policymakers, industry leaders, and civil society to chart a course for a sustainable, resilient, and equitable African future.