Power sector transition in Balochistan – Global Energy Monitor

Power sector transition in Balochistan – Global Energy Monitor

Power Sector Transition in Balochistan

Despite being Pakistan’s largest province by area, Balochistan has long faced challenges in securing reliable electricity access. However, as the country embarks on its clean energy transition, Balochistan’s vast renewable energy potential is emerging as a promising solution to overcome these longstanding power woes.

Balochistan is blessed with an abundance of solar and wind energy resources. The province receives an average of 5.9-6.2 kilowatt-hours (kWh) of solar radiation per square meter daily, and its coastal regions boast wind speeds exceeding 6 meters per second. Estimates suggest Balochistan holds the technical potential for more than 14 GW of renewable energy capacity, including utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV), wind, concentrated solar power (CSP), and distributed solar projects. In contrast, the province’s current installed capacity is heavily reliant on polluting fossil fuels, with 1,350 MW of coal and 990 MW of natural gas generation in operation.

Diversifying Balochistan’s energy mix presents an opportunity to not only improve electricity access, but also drive sustainable development and job creation in the province. The Renewable Energy Policy 2019 aims for 20% of Pakistan’s installed power capacity to come from non-hydro renewables by 2025, rising to 30% by 2030. Achieving these targets will require significant renewable energy buildout in Balochistan, which currently lacks any large-scale (>20 MW) wind or solar projects in the pipeline.

Unlocking this renewable energy potential, however, comes with its own set of challenges. Balochistan’s low population density and rugged terrain make grid expansion particularly costly, leading to reliance on decentralized microgrids and off-grid solutions. The province also grapples with social unrest, with separatist movements and civil conflicts hindering large-scale energy infrastructure development. Moreover, the dominance of coal mining as an economic driver in Balochistan presents a just transition dilemma, as the shift to clean energy must be managed to protect the livelihoods of affected workers and communities.

Overcoming these obstacles will require a comprehensive, multi-stakeholder approach involving the federal and provincial governments, private sector investors, civil society organizations, and local communities. Streamlining the project approval process, strengthening the electricity transmission and distribution network, and developing targeted skilling programs for the renewable energy workforce are just a few of the key priorities. Ensuring equitable access to clean, affordable electricity will also be crucial, as Balochistan is home to some of Pakistan’s most marginalized populations.

By harnessing its abundant renewable resources and mobilizing the necessary investments and policy support, Balochistan can become a shining example of how the energy transition can drive inclusive, sustainable development in Pakistan. The province’s journey towards a clean energy future will undoubtedly be challenging, but the potential rewards—both for Balochistan and the country as a whole—are immense.

Renewable Energy Potential

Balochistan is blessed with some of the highest solar energy potential in Pakistan, with an average daily solar radiation of 5.9-6.2 kWh per square meter. Parts of the province receive an estimated 2,300-2,700 hours of sunlight per year, making it ideally suited for both photovoltaic (PV) and concentrated solar power (CSP) technologies. Estimates suggest Balochistan holds a total solar potential of 1.2 million MW, with more than 40% of the province receiving direct solar radiation exceeding 6 kWh/m².

The province’s coastal regions also offer abundant wind energy resources, with average wind speeds reaching 6.4 meters per second in the township of NokKundi. Overall, Pakistan’s coastal areas, including those in Balochistan, have an estimated wind energy potential of more than 50,000 MW. While no large-scale (>20 MW) wind projects are currently in Balochistan’s pipeline, the government has identified several promising wind corridors in the province, such as Noshki, Kharan, and Killa Saifullah.

Beyond solar and wind, Balochistan also has the potential to develop geothermal energy, particularly along the Chagai Volcanic Arc, in the Pishin Basin, and along the Makran coastal area. However, this resource remains largely untapped, with no geothermal power plants currently operational in the province.

Realizing Balochistan’s full renewable energy potential will be crucial to addressing the province’s chronic power shortages and boosting energy access, especially in its rural and remote areas. According to estimates, Balochistan could potentially host more than 14 GW of renewable energy capacity through a combination of utility-scale solar, wind, CSP, and distributed solar projects.

Grid Infrastructure and Modernization

Balochistan’s grid infrastructure, however, presents a significant challenge to the deployment of large-scale renewable energy projects. The province’s low population density and rugged terrain require extensive and costly transmission networks to evacuate power from renewable energy sites to demand centers. The existing grid in Balochistan, managed by the Quetta Electric Supply Company (QESCO), is characterized by outdated infrastructure, high technical losses (estimated at 27.9% in 2020-21), and poor reliability, leading to frequent power outages.

To address these issues, the Government of Pakistan has initiated efforts to modernize and strengthen the electricity transmission and distribution network in Balochistan. This includes plans to establish new 220 kV and 500 kV substations, as well as upgrade and expand the existing 132 kV grid. However, progress on these transmission projects has been slow, and few are specifically targeted at Balochistan, which already lags behind other provinces in terms of electrification rates.

In the face of these grid constraints, decentralized microgrids and off-grid renewable energy solutions are emerging as promising alternatives to extend electricity access in Balochistan’s rural and remote areas. These localized systems, often paired with battery storage, can provide reliable, affordable power without the need for costly grid expansion. The provincial government has already initiated plans for off-grid electrification projects in several districts, as well as efforts to solarize existing tube wells used for irrigation.

Modernizing Balochistan’s grid infrastructure and embracing distributed renewable energy solutions will be crucial to unlocking the province’s clean energy potential, improving power reliability, and ensuring equitable access to electricity for all residents.

Regulatory and Policy Frameworks

The Government of Pakistan has put in place several policy and regulatory frameworks to support the country’s transition to clean energy, and Balochistan is poised to benefit from these initiatives.

The Renewable Energy Policy 2019 sets a target of 20% non-hydro, grid-connected renewable energy in the national generation mix by 2025, rising to 30% by 2030. The Integrated Generation Capacity Expansion Plan also calls for the addition of 11,700 MW of new wind, solar, and bioenergy projects to the national grid by 2030.

At the provincial level, the Balochistan Power Generation Policy 2007 promotes the development of renewable and indigenous coal projects, and establishes the Balochistan Power Development Board to facilitate private sector investment in wind and solar projects. The province has also signed Memoranda of Understanding with international companies to explore opportunities for decreasing the generation supply gap, particularly in Quetta.

However, the implementation of these policies and the development of renewable energy projects in Balochistan have faced several challenges. The project approval process is lengthy, often taking over 2.5 years from initiation to construction. Securing necessary approvals, permits, and grid interconnection agreements can be arduous, hindering private sector participation.

To address these barriers, the Government of Pakistan is undertaking institutional reforms, such as the transfer of power distribution companies (DISCOs) to provincial control. This move is expected to improve the financial viability of the electricity sector and create more favorable conditions for renewable energy investment in Balochistan.

Additionally, the country has established financing schemes, such as the State Bank of Pakistan’s renewable energy financing program and the World Bank-backed Pakistan Program for Affordable and Clean Energy (PACE), to support the deployment of clean energy technologies. These initiatives, combined with targeted policy frameworks, have the potential to accelerate Balochistan’s power sector transition.

Socioeconomic Implications

The shift towards renewable energy in Balochistan presents both opportunities and challenges from a socioeconomic perspective. On the one hand, the deployment of solar, wind, and other clean energy technologies can drive job creation, improve energy access, and support sustainable development in the province.

According to estimates, the Renewable Energy Policy 2019 could generate up to 333,797 jobs (both direct and indirect) in Pakistan, with a significant portion of these opportunities expected to be in Balochistan. The province’s large, untapped renewable energy potential could create more than 25,000 permanent local jobs in the sector.

However, the dominance of coal mining as an economic driver in Balochistan poses a just transition challenge. Coal mining provides employment for an estimated 40,000 registered workers in the province, and the industry has a long history of poor working conditions and high accident rates. A sudden shift away from coal could have significant social and economic impacts on these communities, underscoring the need for a carefully managed transition that protects workers’ livelihoods and well-being.

Ensuring equitable access to clean, affordable electricity in Balochistan is another key socioeconomic consideration. The province has some of the lowest electrification rates in Pakistan, with over 40% of the population and 64% of the land area lacking access to the grid. Deploying microgrids and off-grid renewable energy solutions can help address this disparity, particularly in rural and remote areas.

To support a just and inclusive energy transition, the Government of Balochistan and civil society organizations are working to engage local communities, understand their needs and concerns, and involve them in the decision-making process. Initiatives like the Azat Foundation Balochistan, the Centre for Peace and Development, and the Balochistan Rural Support Program are playing a crucial role in this regard.

By prioritizing the social and economic well-being of Balochistan’s residents, the province’s clean energy transition can become a catalyst for sustainable development and improved quality of life for all.

Conclusion

Balochistan’s power sector transition presents both immense challenges and boundless opportunities. The province’s vast renewable energy potential, if harnessed effectively, can transform its energy landscape, improve electricity access, and drive sustainable development. However, realizing this vision will require overcoming significant obstacles, from strengthening the provincial grid infrastructure to addressing social unrest and ensuring a just transition for coal-dependent communities.

Through a comprehensive, multi-stakeholder approach involving the government, private sector, and civil society, Balochistan can unlock its clean energy future. By streamlining policy and regulatory frameworks, mobilizing the necessary investments, and prioritizing social equity, the province can become a shining example of how the energy transition can deliver tangible benefits for both the environment and the people.

As Pakistan marches towards its ambitious renewable energy targets, Balochistan’s journey will be closely watched. The province’s success in navigating this transition will not only transform its own energy landscape but also hold valuable lessons for other regions seeking to harness the power of clean, sustainable energy. With the right strategies and concerted efforts, Balochistan can emerge as a beacon of hope, showcasing how the shift to renewable energy can fuel inclusive, equitable, and resilient development.

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