The transition to clean energy across Europe is rapidly accelerating, driven by ambitious climate targets and a need to bolster energy security. Wind and solar power are leading this transformation, but the EU is also pinning its hopes on green hydrogen to decarbonize hard-to-abate sectors like heavy industry and transportation. Fortunately, Europe’s southern neighbors in North Africa are well-positioned to become major producers and exporters of this sustainable fuel.
Renewable Energy Resources in North Africa
Countries across North Africa possess some of the world’s most abundant renewable energy potential. The Sahara and Sahel regions boast exceptionally high solar irradiation levels, while coastal areas along the Mediterranean and Atlantic feature strong wind resources. Morocco, for instance, aims to increase renewables’ share of power generation to 52% by 2030, 70% by 2040, and 80% by 2050. The Moroccan Agency for Solar Energy is leading the country’s massive Noor Solar Project, which will invest $2.6 billion by 2030 to expand domestic solar capacity.
Algeria, too, has immense untapped wind energy potential—an estimated 7,700 GW if fully developed. And Mauritania’s combined solar and wind resources exceed 500 GW. Across the region, governments are rapidly scaling up renewable energy infrastructure to meet growing electricity demand and reduce reliance on fossil fuel imports.
Potential for Green Hydrogen Production
This renewable power capacity sets the stage for North Africa to emerge as a global leader in green hydrogen production. The region’s abundant, low-cost clean energy can power the electrolysis process to split water molecules and extract hydrogen, creating a sustainable fuel source free of direct carbon emissions.
Morocco has already established a National Hydrogen Commission and released a roadmap aiming to mobilize $10 billion for 14 TWh of new renewable energy capacity to generate green hydrogen for both domestic use and export. The country hopes to produce up to 1.2 million tonnes of green hydrogen annually by 2030 and 2.7 million tonnes by 2040. Algeria and Mauritania also boast significant potential, and an African Green Hydrogen Alliance has formed to coordinate regional efforts.
Challenges and Opportunities
Realizing North Africa’s green hydrogen ambitions will require overcoming several key challenges. First, the capital-intensive nature of these projects means access to financing will be critical, both from public and private sources. Governments must develop regulatory frameworks and incentive schemes to attract investment.
Water scarcity also poses a major obstacle, as hydrogen production via electrolysis requires substantial amounts of water. Pairing green hydrogen facilities with desalination plants powered by renewable energy could help, but these water treatment systems carry their own environmental and cost considerations.
Yet the opportunities outweigh the barriers. By becoming a major green hydrogen exporter, North Africa can generate new revenue streams, drive industrial growth, and support the EU’s decarbonization agenda. Green hydrogen could replace fossil fuel-derived ammonia and fertilizers, for example, reducing the carbon footprint of the region’s crucial agricultural sector. It also holds promise for transportation, especially as production costs continue to fall.
Transport and Infrastructure
Ensuring green hydrogen from North Africa can effectively reach European end-users will require significant investments in midstream infrastructure.
Hydrogen Pipelines and Shipping
Existing natural gas pipelines across the region, such as the planned Trans-Saharan pipeline connecting Nigeria and Algeria, could potentially be repurposed to transport hydrogen. Blending modest amounts of hydrogen into these systems would allow North African nations to kickstart hydrogen trade while the necessary dedicated hydrogen infrastructure is developed.
For longer-distance shipping, converting hydrogen to ammonia offers an efficient transport medium. Ammonia is more stable and easier to liquefy than pure hydrogen, making it well-suited for transoceanic transport. Existing ammonia export terminals in North Africa could provide a foundation for this trade with Europe.
Storage and Distribution Networks
Strategic placement of hydrogen storage facilities, whether underground salt caverns or aboveground tanks, will be crucial to ensure a reliable supply. This storage capacity can help manage fluctuations in production and demand.
At the receiving end, EU ports and industrial hubs will need new infrastructure like ammonia cracking plants to convert the imported fuel back into pure hydrogen. Integrating this network with the continent’s evolving hydrogen backbone will facilitate distribution to end-users.
Integrating with Existing Infrastructure
By leveraging existing energy infrastructure where possible, North Africa and Europe can accelerate the development of hydrogen trade and minimize upfront costs. Repurposing gas pipelines, utilizing ammonia export terminals, and connecting to emerging regional hydrogen networks will all be crucial.
Economic and Policy Considerations
The economic viability of green hydrogen from North Africa will depend on supportive policy frameworks, access to financing, and the ability to scale production to drive down costs.
Financing Green Hydrogen Projects
Mobilizing the necessary capital for these large-scale renewable energy and hydrogen projects represents a major challenge. Governments must develop and fund targeted incentive schemes, potentially drawing on EU initiatives like the European Hydrogen Bank, to bridge the cost gap with fossil fuel alternatives. Attracting private investment will also be key.
Regulatory Frameworks and Incentives
Clear, consistent regulatory frameworks will be essential to provide policy certainty and unlock investment. Measures like production quotas, carbon pricing, and contract-for-difference mechanisms can help drive demand for green hydrogen. Harmonizing certification schemes and trade rules across the Mediterranean will also facilitate market development.
Competitiveness and Market Dynamics
As production scales up, green hydrogen from North Africa is poised to become increasingly cost-competitive with blue hydrogen derived from natural gas. Favorable renewable energy costs, coupled with nascent hydrogen tax credits and other policy supports, could allow North African suppliers to undercut even domestic European production in some regions.
This dynamic could spur faster fuel switching in power, industry, and transportation, solidifying demand and incentivizing further investment in hydrogen infrastructure. It will be crucial, however, to ensure these cost advantages translate into economic and environmental benefits for local communities.
Environmental and Social Impacts
While green hydrogen offers immense potential to reduce emissions, its environmental and social implications must be carefully managed to ensure a just and sustainable energy transition.
Sustainability and Life-Cycle Assessments
Comprehensive life-cycle assessments will be needed to fully understand the environmental footprint of green hydrogen from North Africa, accounting for factors like water use, land use, and emissions from supporting infrastructure. Only by rigorously quantifying these impacts can policymakers and project developers optimize processes and technologies to maximize sustainability.
Community Engagement and Local Benefits
Meaningful engagement with affected communities will be essential, especially regarding issues of land tenure and water access. Ensuring local stakeholders share in the economic and social benefits of these projects—through job creation, community investment, and equitable distribution of resources—will be crucial for a just energy transition.
Emissions Reduction Potential
At scale, green hydrogen exports from North Africa could significantly contribute to the EU’s overarching decarbonization goals. By displacing fossil fuels in hard-to-abate sectors, this sustainable fuel can play a pivotal role in the continent’s journey to net-zero emissions. Careful policy coordination and a focus on emissions-intensive end-uses will be required to maximize these climate benefits.
As the European Future Energy Forum has emphasized, the transition to clean energy across Europe represents both an economic opportunity and an environmental imperative. By harnessing North Africa’s unparalleled renewable energy resources to produce green hydrogen, the two regions can forge a mutually beneficial partnership that accelerates decarbonization on both sides of the Mediterranean.