The transition to a sustainable energy future in Europe is well underway, driven by ambitious renewable energy targets, supportive policy frameworks, and collaborative public-private initiatives. Wind power has seen remarkable expansion, with over 209 GW of installed capacity across the continent as of 2022. Solar photovoltaic (PV) installations have also skyrocketed, reaching 164 GW in the same year. Emerging hydrogen pilot projects hold immense promise for decarbonizing hard-to-abate sectors. Yet, quantifying the impact of the structural changes behind these sustainability breakthroughs remains a persistent challenge.
Researchers have increasingly recognized the pivotal role of structural factors in driving the sustainability transformation. Policy mechanisms, battery storage advancements, and public-private net-zero partnerships are all crucial structural elements shaping Europe’s clean energy transition. However, assessing the precise impact of these structural changes on environmental, social, and economic outcomes has proven elusive. Certain forms of structural change, like building retrofits or shifts in energy mix, can be readily quantified. But the impacts of deeper, more systemic changes—such as evolving societal narratives around wellbeing or the declining influence of the growth paradigm—defy easy measurement.
This quandary is at the heart of a new study led by the Research Institute for Sustainability (RIFS) at the GFZ Helmholtz Centre. The study, published in the journal Consumption and Society, draws insights from six EU-funded research projects exploring sustainable consumption, citizenship, and lifestyles. Collectively, these projects evaluated diverse structural factors—from political and economic to technological and social—and their influence on the sustainability of European lifestyles and behaviors.
“Being able to quantify the impacts of structural changes would be invaluable for policymakers and sustainability advocates,” explains Doris Fuchs, Scientific Director at RIFS and lead author of the study. “It would help make the case for pursuing structural transformations as a crucial lever for sustainability, rather than just focusing on individual behavior change.”
Mapping the Structural Landscape
The researchers adopted a broad, multifaceted view of structures, recognizing their pervasive influence across political, economic, technological, and societal domains. At the political level, they examined structures ranging from specific regulations to deeper institutional arrangements and power dynamics. Socially, they explored the role of norms, values, and cultural narratives in shaping sustainable lifestyles.
On the economic front, the team delved into the impacts of market incentives, price signals, and financial resources—or lack thereof. Technological structures, such as energy infrastructure and product design, also emerged as key determinants of sustainable consumption patterns.
Importantly, the researchers distinguished between “shallow” and “deep” structures, the latter being more foundational and challenging to alter. For example, the growth paradigm and the power of vested interests were identified as particularly influential deep structures impacting the sustainability transformation.
“Intentional pursuits of structural change tend to focus on the more visible, ‘shallow’ structures,” notes Fuchs. “But it’s the deep structures that are often the most consequential for achieving meaningful and lasting sustainability.”
Quantifying Structural Impacts
To assess the impact of these diverse structural factors, the research team employed a range of quantitative methods, each with its own strengths and limitations.
Input-Output Analysis: By adjusting economic activity data and emissions factors, researchers were able to model the implications of structural changes, such as shifts in energy mix or the adoption of electric vehicles, on greenhouse gas emissions. However, this approach struggles to capture the impacts of broader sociopolitical transformations.
Survey-based Approaches: Surveys provided valuable insights into perceptions and evaluations of structures, such as narratives around wellbeing or the acceptability of policy interventions. But the reliability of survey data can be hampered by respondents’ familiarity with the issues at hand.
Qualitative-to-Quantitative Techniques: Some projects combined qualitative assessments (e.g., interviews, text analysis) with structured quantification methods like PESTEL analysis and the Analytic Hierarchy Process. This approach allowed for the ranking and prioritization of structural factors, albeit based on expert judgments rather than representative data.
Statistical Analysis of Existing Datasets: Researchers leveraged macroeconomic and sociodemographic datasets to explore the impacts of structural reforms, such as changes in regulations or income distribution. However, this method is constrained by the availability and scope of the underlying data.
“No single method can be considered universally applicable,” cautions Fuchs. “Each approach has its own strengths and blindspots when it comes to capturing the impacts of structural change. Researchers must be cognizant of these tradeoffs and combine multiple methods to gain a more comprehensive understanding.”
Structural Shifts for a Sustainable Future
The insights gathered by the RIFS-led study underscore the critical importance of addressing structural barriers and enablers in the pursuit of Europe’s sustainability goals. While individual behavior change remains a vital component, the researchers argue that a sole focus on the individual overlooks the profound influence of broader systemic factors.
“Policymakers and sustainability advocates must shift their attention from promoting individual actions to enabling transformative structural changes,” urges Fuchs. “This means prioritizing initiatives that reshape the political, economic, technological, and social landscapes to facilitate widespread adoption of sustainable lifestyles and practices.”
Unlocking Europe’s renewable energy potential, for instance, will require not only continued wind and solar capacity expansions, but also complementary investments in grid infrastructure, energy storage, and supportive regulatory frameworks. Similarly, the success of emerging hydrogen economies hinges on coordinated efforts to develop production facilities, distribution networks, and end-use applications.
Ultimately, the ability to quantify the impacts of structural changes will be essential for informing policymaking, aligning investment strategies, and mobilizing public support for the sustainability transformation. As the European Future Energy Forum highlights, the region’s clean energy revolution is well underway—and the structural underpinnings of this transition will be key to realizing its full potential.