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EUROPEAN FUTURE ENERGY FORUM
23 September 2011

Interview with Miroslav Durana, Director, Credit Suisse AG

 What are the big issues for the Future of Energy at the moment?

 Issue I: Growing energy scarcity

23% of population is without access to modern energy

More than 1.6 billion people (approx. 23% of the world`s population) currently have no access to a modern form of energy at an affordable price. Without new energy policies, around 1.4 billion people will likely be without access to electricity and essential energy services by 2030.

 Issue II: Oil

(1) Rising pressure from oil demand

Since 1950 the world’s population has grown 2.7 times, while oil demand has increased 8.6 times, mainly due to increasing urbanization and industrial activities, especially in emerging markets. This oil consumption pattern is not sustainable mainly due to depletion of oil reserves, in our view.

(2) Depleting oil reserves

Effectively, according to the International Energy Agency, today’s oil (proven) reserves are estimated to be between 50-65 years. In its last World Energy Outlook, IEA indicates that new oil fields have yet to be found to cover rising oil demand beyond 2015, indicating a potential major oil supply issue going forward.

Issue III: Nuclear power

In light of the recent nuclear accident in Japan, we expect that the current nuclear expansion may wane in the medium term, mainly due to growing popular and political resistance, and the need for enhanced safety standards (based on lessons learned from Japan`s accident).

Issue IV: Coal power

Coal power plants are currently responsible for more than 40% of carbon emissions globally, as they have the highest CO2 emissions: approx. 950 grams/kWh, compared to approx. 450 g/kWh for combined gas cycle and less than 40 g/kWh for electricity produced from wind or solar systems.

Further, coal plants are very strong SO2, NOx and particulate matters emitters, compared to low or zero pollution emissions from gas, solar and wind power. This coal-linked pollution leads to high environmental and health cost impacts: the latter estimated at more than USD 300 bn annually in USA, Europe and China.

Secondly, coal plants typically have thermal (conversion) efficiencies of between 32-40%, which compare less favourably to the 85-90% conversion efficiencies for hydropower and 50-60% for advanced gas turbines, for instance.

 

How do you think we can make a difference?

The difference can be made by enhanced promotion of renewable energies, especially solar, wind and biomass power, notably through organizing of conferences and renewable energy forums in the future.

 

Why are you attending EFEF?

 I am attending the EFEF in order to contribute through various panel discussions to promotion and further development of renewable energies in the future, and to exchange thoughts and ideas with other conference participants.

Register now for the conference to see Miroslav Durana speak on the Future of Energy - see full conference details at www.EuropeanFutureEnergyForum.com/conference and register now online at www.EuropeanFutureEnergyForum.com/register